CRISE MONDIALE.fr

LS · Rédacteur

Un nouveau suivi est en préparation. Je le posterai demain à Kurt Saturax.
J'anticipe une période de consolidation de 1 à 2 mois avant la reprise de la hausse pour l'or, l'argent et les mines d'or.

Je me suis permis d'ajouter trois graphiques postés sur ce forum par imhotep et LaDoub. Merci à eux! Pour la source, j'ai ajouté aux graphiques "crise-mondiale.fr"

Publicité · Google

mdan · Lieutenant-colonel

Merci! On attend ça avec impatience Smile

bubulle · Général

Un grand merci d'avance. Encore quelques trmps avant de renforcer

dode67 · Général

Puisque nous évoluons sur beaucoup de thèmes divers, j'aimerais en reprendre un concernant les prophéties de Mahomet où il décrit l'antéchrist en tant "borgne".

L'être humain est né avec deux yeux; la signification en est que d'origine il est destiné à voir avec les yeux du corps comme de l'âme. Les yeux du corps représentent tout la dynamique physiologique et intellectuelle > d'où l'analyse technique.
S'il y a une dimension tragique c'est celle du borgne qui ne peut voir qu'avec la dimension humaine terrestre, car il ne peut se fier qu'aux faits... C'est du terre à terre pur et dur!
La dimension du coeur de l'âme qui naturellement cherche l'élévation, amène a voir sous un autre angle, de haut, même par delà l'espace et le temps; et c'est aussi vu sous cet angle que depuis le début je suis extrêmement pessimiste concernant les temps à venir au niveau du monde...
Les deux unies font que l'approche se révèlent avec des nuances nouvelles, comme si en nous deux "sattelites nous situent au travers d'un gps".

En moi, je perçois que le temps devient extrèmement court avant une grande envolée des cours. Dernièerement, par deux fois j'en ai eu cette intuition! Ceux qui n'auraient pas encore de physique, profitez de ces temps de l'Avent-Noël pour effectuer vos achats...

Si je me trompe, svp, ne m'en veuillez pas trop!

Paix et joie à tous

André

pascalbrutal · Général

Je reçois cette analyse de LEVENSTEIN

Recent gold price dip, just a minor hiccough

While gold prices have fallen over the last few days on a slightly stronger dollar the fundamentals for the gold rally have not changed at all
Author: David Levenstein
Posted: Monday , 14 Dec 2009

JOHANNESBURG -
When the US non-farm payrolls were released on Friday 04, December, the US dollar rebounded immediately on the encouraging numbers. As to be expected the gains in the US dollar put pressure on the gold price. Then, on Friday December 11, gold eased after running up some US$15 during the day due to the stronger than forecast retail sales data, which caused the dollar to rally. As retail sales increase there is an expectation that the Fed may begin raising rates and that is considered to be bullish for the dollar. November retail sales rose 1.3% versus a consensus forecast of 0.7%. Sales excluding autos were up 1.2%. So does this mean that we have seen the high for gold and the low for the dollar?
Firstly, do you really believe that the Fed is going to suddenly raise interest rates based on these two reports? And secondly do you really believe that the long-term trends in gold and the US dollar have reversed in the last ten days?
When it comes to gold, no one can deny that we have seen a very impressive run up in the prices since July this year. Perhaps in the short-term the price was due for a pull-back which is normal behaviour for any market. But if you think that we have seen the highs in gold, you had better think again. Yes, US$1225 may well have been the top of this current leg, but this bull market in gold is far from over and still has enormous upside potential.
The fundamentals that have been driving the gold price higher have not changed at all.
With US debt now surpassing $12 trillion and the annual deficit ballooning past $1.5 trillion, I maintain that this massive exploding debt is not going to be as manageable as officials would like us to believe. I believe that countries such as Japan, Korea, China, India and Russia will no longer buy US treasuries, and ultimately the Fed is going to have no choice but print more money. And, this will continue to devalue the US dollar. I also believe that gold will begin to play and even more important part as a global currency over the coming years, as people lose confidence in the major currencies especially the US dollar. And, the demand for gold will continue to outstrip supply.
The other two factors that I think will have a positive influence on the gold price is the emergence of China as a major player in the gold market and the turn around of attitude of central bankers towards gold. And, as the major mining houses begin to learn that the secret to successful trading is to sell high and buy low and not the other way around, they will show restraint when it comes to hedging their production which will in turn take off some of the selling pressure on the markets.
Based on the comments of BofA/Merrill Lynch and many other bank analysts including Goldman Sachs, Barclay's, HSBC, UBS and others, the dollar is fundamentally weak because the US government has too much debt. In the past few days the credit rating agencies have warned the U.S. government and the UK that if nothing is done to reduce budget deficits within the next two years, then there is a serious risk of a credit downgrade for both countries. That would be very negative for the dollar. Given the fact that there seems to be no possibility of reducing the deficits and they are expected to actually be over $1 trillion a year for the next six or seven years, one can assume that the dollar will continue its decline and gold will continue rising. BofA/Merrill Lynch forecast that gold will be $1,500 an ounce in the next 18 months.

I believe that what we are seeing now as just another period of correction and consolidation. And as I have stated in the past, any drop only presents an opportunity for investors to accumulate gold and silver assets. And, one of the best ways to add gold and silver to your portfolio is to buy the physical metal by buying bullion bars and bullion coins. And, once you have built up a core holding of the physical metal, then you can look to invest in shares and exchange traded funds. And, if you are prepared to take some risk and want to trade the metals then you must look at gold futures and options.
Technicals

When we look at a longer-term chart, it is clear that from September/October 2008 the gold price has been moving upwards within an upward channel that has an average divergence of around US$200 from the top to the bottom. The support line has held on numerous occasions and if the $200 divergence holds then gold should find support above $1000. However, I think gold will find support at $1050 - $1075. No matter what the price, the upward trend is still very much intact and any dip to $1100, $1050 should be used as buying opportunities.

About the author
David Levenstein is a leading expert on investing in precious metals .He brings over 29 years experience in futures, equities, forex and bullion. And, although he began trading silver through the LME in 1980, when it comes to gold, he has traded gold bullion, gold coins, gold shares, gold ETF, gold funds and gold futures for his personal account as well as for clients. Over the years, David has been published in dozens of publications and has appeared on CNBC and Summit TV (South Africa), and is a regular guest on JSE Direct, a premier radio business channel in Johannesburg, South Africa. He is also a regular commentator on www.kitco.com and www.mineweb.com David has lived and worked in Johannesburg, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Bali.

mdan · Lieutenant-colonel